Short History of Canadian Politics
The Pattern — and Its Break in 2025
For much of Canadian federal history, power has shifted back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives, often driven less by sweeping ideological change and more by voter frustration with the current governing party. This created what many saw as a political loop, where change was pursued simply by removing whoever was in charge — only for the cycle to repeat with the next party in line.
However, this pattern was broken in the 2025 federal election, when the Liberals under Mark Carney secured re-election — despite widespread expectations of a Conservative win, based on online betting markets and public sentiment among disaffected voters.
Some observers speculate that the outcome was influenced by a wave of nationalist sentiment following U.S. President Donald Trump's post-election remarks suggesting that Canada could become the "51st state." While likely rhetorical, his comments brought the topic of annexation into mainstream political discourse in a way not seen in modern Canadian history.
Whether this marks the start of a long-term realignment or a temporary disruption remains to be seen, but it clearly broke the long-standing rhythm of Canada's federal political cycle.
This humorous flowchart illustrates a pattern many Canadians feel reflects the country's federal political cycle:
- Get angry at Liberals
- Vote Conservative to get rid of Liberals
- Get angry at Conservatives
- Vote Liberal to get rid of Conservatives
- Repeat
Basic Explanation for Non-Canadians
Canada has a parliamentary democracy, but unlike many multi-party systems where several parties share power or regularly alternate leadership, only two parties have ever formed a federal government:
- The Liberal Party of Canada – Generally centrist to center-left, often associated with social progressivism, multiculturalism, and public healthcare.
- The Conservative Party of Canada – Generally center-right, often focused on fiscal conservatism, law and order, and traditional values.
While Canada does have other political parties — including:
- The New Democratic Party (NDP) – social justice, labor-oriented
- The Bloc Québécois – Quebec sovereignty-focused (only runs in Quebec)
- The Green Party of Canada – social justice, environmentalist
...these parties rarely win more than a small portion of the seats. Occasionally, they do wield influence, especially in a minority government situation, where the governing party lacks a majority and must rely on support from smaller parties to pass legislation. This can result in a coalition-style influence, but these smaller parties have never led the federal government in Canada.