Online Gambling Sites as Election Predictors
My interest in the predictive power of collective intelligence and trending predictions through looking at online gambling was recently rekindled by a reel from Peter Salemi, featuring data from The Roar | BetMGM about odds and predictions for the 45th Canadian Federal Election. The video emphasized the idea: Follow the money!
This brought to mind an earlier anecdote from the late 2000s: I came across a compelling claim that, during the lead-up to the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election, most traditional polling data had John Kerry leading and predicted to win. However, an online gambling site based in Ireland had George W. Bush as the favored candidate. Ultimately, Bush did go on to win re-election, suggesting that the gambling market had outperformed the polls in predictive accuracy.
Interpretation
These examples point to a broader idea: Markets where people wager real money may offer better predictive insights than traditional opinion polls. The reasoning is that people tend to place bets based on what they genuinely believe will happen—not merely what they hope for. This often makes prediction markets more accurate than opinion surveys, which can be distorted by bias, limited sample sizes, or emotional responses.
Notes
The reemergence of election betting discourse via platforms like BetMGM shows that the idea remains relevant. As prediction markets grow in popularity and legitimacy, they continue to serve as a valuable tool for gauging collective expectations—especially in domains like politics, where public sentiment can be volatile and difficult to measure.
Interesting Reel from BetMGM on upcoming Canadian election
Interesting reel from Peter Salemi on results from The Roar | BetMGM about 45th Canadian Federal Election Odds, Favourites, & Predictions.
Follow the money!