Online Gambling Sites as Election Predictors
Overview
My interest in the predictive power of collective intelligence and trending predictions through online gambling was recently rekindled by an intriguing reel from Peter Salemi, featuring data from The Roar | BetMGM about odds and predictions for the 45th Canadian Federal Election. The video emphasized the idea: Follow the money!
Initially, there was a notable gap between public opinion polls and gambling odds, with the betting markets showing a tighter race. However, more recently, the public polls have shifted, and the two are now starting to align — both suggesting that a Liberal minority is becoming the most likely outcome.
This brings to mind an earlier anecdote from the late 2000s: during the lead-up to the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election, most major public opinion polls predicted a John Kerry victory. However, an online gambling site based in Ireland favored George W. Bush to win—and indeed, Bush was re-elected. In hindsight, the gambling market produced a more accurate forecast than much of the polling industry.
Interpretation
These examples point to a broader idea: Markets where people wager real money may offer better predictive insights than traditional opinion polls. The reasoning is that people tend to bet based on what they genuinely believe will happen—not merely what they hope for. This often makes prediction markets more accurate than surveys, which can be influenced by bias, limited sample sizes, and emotional responses.
Notes
The reemergence of election betting discourse via platforms like BetMGM and Polymarket shows that this concept remains very relevant. As prediction markets grow in visibility and credibility, they continue to serve as valuable tools for gauging collective expectations—especially in domains like politics, where public sentiment can shift rapidly and unpredictably.
Interesting Reel about BetMGM on Upcoming Canadian Election
An interesting reel from Peter Salemi highlighting The Roar | BetMGM data about 45th Canadian Federal Election odds, favourites, and predictions.
Follow the money!