Online Gambling Sites as Election Predictors - Revision history

Nik: /* Interesting Reel from BetMGM on Upcoming Canadian Election */

2025-04-26T21:03:52Z

Interesting Reel from BetMGM on Upcoming Canadian Election

← Older revision		Revision as of 2025-04-26T21:03:52
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	The reemergence of election betting discourse via platforms like BetMGM and Polymarket shows that this concept remains very relevant. As prediction markets grow in visibility and credibility, they continue to serve as valuable tools for gauging collective expectations—especially in domains like politics, where public sentiment can shift rapidly and unpredictably.		The reemergence of election betting discourse via platforms like BetMGM and Polymarket shows that this concept remains very relevant. As prediction markets grow in visibility and credibility, they continue to serve as valuable tools for gauging collective expectations—especially in domains like politics, where public sentiment can shift rapidly and unpredictably.

	== Interesting Reel ~~from~~ BetMGM on Upcoming Canadian Election ==		== Interesting Reel about BetMGM on Upcoming Canadian Election ==
	An interesting reel from [https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi Peter Salemi] highlighting ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' data about 45th Canadian Federal Election odds, favourites, and predictions.		An interesting reel from [https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi Peter Salemi] highlighting ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' data about 45th Canadian Federal Election odds, favourites, and predictions.

Nik at 2025-04-26T21:03:36

2025-04-26T21:03:36Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 2025-04-26T21:03:36
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	~~= Online Gambling Sites as Election Predictors =~~

	[[File:Polymarket 2025-04-26 odds for Canadian election in two days.png\|thumb\|right\|Polymarket odds (April 26, 2025)]]		[[File:Polymarket 2025-04-26 odds for Canadian election in two days.png\|thumb\|right\|Polymarket odds (April 26, 2025)]]

Nik at 2025-04-26T21:03:26

2025-04-26T21:03:26Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 2025-04-26T21:03:26
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	My interest in the predictive power of '''collective intelligence''' and '''trending predictions''' through looking at online gambling was recently rekindled by a reel from Peter Salemi, featuring data from ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' about odds and predictions for the 45th Canadian Federal Election~~. The video emphasized the idea: '''Follow the money!'''~~		= Online Gambling Sites as Election Predictors =

	This ~~brought~~ to mind an earlier anecdote from the late 2000s: ~~I came across a compelling claim that,~~ during the lead-up to the '''2004 U.S. Presidential Election''', most ~~traditional polling data had~~ '''John Kerry''' ~~leading and predicted to win~~. However, an '''online gambling site based in Ireland''' ~~had~~ '''George W. Bush''' ~~as the favored candidate. Ultimately~~, Bush ~~did go on to '''win~~ re-~~election'''~~, ~~suggesting that~~ the gambling market ~~had outperformed~~ the ~~polls in predictive accuracy~~.		[[File:Polymarket 2025-04-26 odds for Canadian election in two days.png\|thumb\|right\|Polymarket odds (April 26, 2025)]]

			== Overview ==
			My interest in the predictive power of '''collective intelligence''' and '''trending predictions''' through online gambling was recently rekindled by an intriguing reel from [https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi Peter Salemi], featuring data from ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' about odds and predictions for the 45th Canadian Federal Election. The video emphasized the idea: '''Follow the money!'''

			Initially, there was a notable gap between public opinion polls and gambling odds, with the betting markets showing a tighter race. However, more recently, the public polls have shifted, and the two are now starting to align — both suggesting that a '''Liberal minority''' is becoming the most likely outcome.

			This brings to mind an earlier anecdote from the late 2000s: during the lead-up to the '''2004 U.S. Presidential Election''', most major public opinion polls predicted a '''John Kerry''' victory. However, an '''online gambling site based in Ireland''' favored '''George W. Bush''' to win—and indeed, Bush was re-elected. In hindsight, the gambling market produced a more accurate forecast than much of the polling industry.

	== Interpretation ==		== Interpretation ==
	These examples point to a broader idea:		These examples point to a broader idea:
	''Markets where people wager real money may offer better predictive insights than traditional opinion polls.'' The reasoning is that people tend to ~~place bets~~ based on what they genuinely believe will happen—not merely what they hope for. This often makes '''prediction markets''' more accurate than ~~opinion~~ surveys, which can be ~~distorted~~ by bias, limited sample sizes, or emotional responses.		''Markets where people wager real money may offer better predictive insights than traditional opinion polls.'' The reasoning is that people tend to bet based on what they genuinely believe will happen—not merely what they hope for. This often makes '''prediction markets''' more accurate than surveys, which can be influenced by bias, limited sample sizes, and emotional responses.

	== Notes ==		== Notes ==
	The reemergence of election betting discourse via platforms like BetMGM shows that ~~the idea~~ remains relevant. As prediction markets grow in ~~popularity~~ and ~~legitimacy~~, they continue to serve as a valuable ~~tool~~ for gauging collective expectations—especially in domains like politics, where public sentiment can ~~be volatile~~ and ~~difficult to measure~~.		The reemergence of election betting discourse via platforms like BetMGM and Polymarket shows that this concept remains very relevant. As prediction markets grow in visibility and credibility, they continue to serve as valuable tools for gauging collective expectations—especially in domains like politics, where public sentiment can shift rapidly and unpredictably.

	== Interesting Reel from BetMGM on ~~upcoming~~ Canadian ~~election~~==		== Interesting Reel from BetMGM on Upcoming Canadian Election ==
	~~Interesting~~ reel from [https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi Peter Salemi] ~~on results from~~ ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' about 45th Canadian Federal Election ~~Odds~~, ~~Favourites~~, ~~& Predictions~~.		An interesting reel from [https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi Peter Salemi] highlighting ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' data about 45th Canadian Federal Election odds, favourites, and predictions.

	<blockquote>		<blockquote>
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	* [https://sports.betmgm.ca/en/blog/canadian-federal-election-odds/canadian-federal-election-betting-odds-predictions-bm-20/ BetMGM: Canadian Federal Election Betting Odds & Predictions]		* [https://sports.betmgm.ca/en/blog/canadian-federal-election-odds/canadian-federal-election-betting-odds-predictions-bm-20/ BetMGM: Canadian Federal Election Betting Odds & Predictions]
	* [https://www.facebook.com/reel/1164301544892666 Facebook Reel: 45th Canadian Federal Election Odds]		* [https://www.facebook.com/reel/1164301544892666 Facebook Reel: 45th Canadian Federal Election Odds]
			* [https://polymarket.com/canada Polymarket: Canadian Election Predictions]

	[[Category:2025 Articles]]		[[Category:2025 Articles]]

Nik at 2025-03-22T22:52:46

2025-03-22T22:52:46Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 2025-03-22T22:52:46
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	My interest in the predictive power of online gambling ~~markets~~ was recently rekindled by ~~an interesting~~ reel from Peter Salemi, featuring data from ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' about odds and predictions for the 45th Canadian Federal Election. The video emphasized the idea: '''Follow the money!'''		My interest in the predictive power of '''collective intelligence''' and '''trending predictions''' through looking at online gambling was recently rekindled by a reel from Peter Salemi, featuring data from ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' about odds and predictions for the 45th Canadian Federal Election. The video emphasized the idea: '''Follow the money!'''

	This brought to mind an earlier anecdote from the late 2000s: I came across a compelling claim that, during the lead-up to the '''2004 U.S. Presidential Election''', most traditional polling data had '''John Kerry''' leading and predicted to win. However, an '''online gambling site based in Ireland''' had '''George W. Bush''' as the favored candidate. Ultimately, Bush did go on to '''win re-election''', suggesting that the gambling market had outperformed the polls in predictive accuracy.		This brought to mind an earlier anecdote from the late 2000s: I came across a compelling claim that, during the lead-up to the '''2004 U.S. Presidential Election''', most traditional polling data had '''John Kerry''' leading and predicted to win. However, an '''online gambling site based in Ireland''' had '''George W. Bush''' as the favored candidate. Ultimately, Bush did go on to '''win re-election''', suggesting that the gambling market had outperformed the polls in predictive accuracy.

Nik at 2025-03-22T21:44:31

2025-03-22T21:44:31Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 2025-03-22T21:44:31
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	My interest in the predictive power of online gambling markets was recently rekindled by an interesting reel from ~~[https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi~~ Peter Salemi], featuring data from ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' about odds and predictions for the 45th Canadian Federal Election. The video emphasized the idea: '''Follow the money!'''		My interest in the predictive power of online gambling markets was recently rekindled by an interesting reel from Peter Salemi, featuring data from ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' about odds and predictions for the 45th Canadian Federal Election. The video emphasized the idea: '''Follow the money!'''

	This brought to mind an earlier anecdote from the late 2000s: I came across a compelling claim that, during the lead-up to the '''2004 U.S. Presidential Election''', most traditional polling data had '''John Kerry''' leading and predicted to win. However, an '''online gambling site based in Ireland''' had '''George W. Bush''' as the favored candidate. Ultimately, Bush did go on to '''win re-election''', suggesting that the gambling market had outperformed the polls in predictive accuracy.		This brought to mind an earlier anecdote from the late 2000s: I came across a compelling claim that, during the lead-up to the '''2004 U.S. Presidential Election''', most traditional polling data had '''John Kerry''' leading and predicted to win. However, an '''online gambling site based in Ireland''' had '''George W. Bush''' as the favored candidate. Ultimately, Bush did go on to '''win re-election''', suggesting that the gambling market had outperformed the polls in predictive accuracy.

Nik at 2025-03-22T21:43:04

2025-03-22T21:43:04Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 2025-03-22T21:43:04
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	[[Category:Crowd Knowledge]]		[[Category:Crowd Knowledge]]
	[[Category:Prediction Markets]]		[[Category:Prediction Markets]]
			__NOTOC__

Nik at 2025-03-22T21:41:58

2025-03-22T21:41:58Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 2025-03-22T21:41:58
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	~~= Online Gambling Sites as Election Predictors =~~

	~~== Overview ==~~
	My interest in the predictive power of online gambling markets was recently rekindled by an interesting reel from [https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi Peter Salemi], featuring data from ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' about odds and predictions for the 45th Canadian Federal Election. The video emphasized the idea: '''Follow the money!'''		My interest in the predictive power of online gambling markets was recently rekindled by an interesting reel from [https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi Peter Salemi], featuring data from ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' about odds and predictions for the 45th Canadian Federal Election. The video emphasized the idea: '''Follow the money!'''

Nik: /* Interesting Reel about BetMGM */

2025-03-22T21:41:12Z

Interesting Reel about BetMGM

← Older revision		Revision as of 2025-03-22T21:41:12
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	The reemergence of election betting discourse via platforms like BetMGM shows that the idea remains relevant. As prediction markets grow in popularity and legitimacy, they continue to serve as a valuable tool for gauging collective expectations—especially in domains like politics, where public sentiment can be volatile and difficult to measure.		The reemergence of election betting discourse via platforms like BetMGM shows that the idea remains relevant. As prediction markets grow in popularity and legitimacy, they continue to serve as a valuable tool for gauging collective expectations—especially in domains like politics, where public sentiment can be volatile and difficult to measure.

	== Interesting Reel ~~about~~ BetMGM ==		== Interesting Reel from BetMGM on upcoming Canadian election==
	Interesting reel from [https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi Peter Salemi] on results from ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' about 45th Canadian Federal Election Odds, Favourites, & Predictions.		Interesting reel from [https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi Peter Salemi] on results from ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' about 45th Canadian Federal Election Odds, Favourites, & Predictions.

Nik at 2025-03-22T21:40:31

2025-03-22T21:40:31Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 2025-03-22T21:40:31
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	In the late 2000s, I came across an intriguing claim about the predictive power of online gambling markets in political elections. Specifically, it was noted that in the lead-up to the '''2004 U.S. Presidential Election~~''', most traditional polling data had '''John Kerry''' leading and predicted to win. However, an '''online gambling site based in Ireland''' had '''George W. Bush''' as the favored candidate to win.~~		= Online Gambling Sites as Election Predictors =

	~~Ultimately~~, George W. Bush did go on to '''win re-election''' ~~in 2004~~, ~~which suggests~~ that the gambling ~~site~~ had ~~a more accurate prediction than many of~~ the ~~major~~ polls ~~at the time~~.		== Overview ==
			My interest in the predictive power of online gambling markets was recently rekindled by an interesting reel from [https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi Peter Salemi], featuring data from ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' about odds and predictions for the 45th Canadian Federal Election. The video emphasized the idea: '''Follow the money!'''

			This brought to mind an earlier anecdote from the late 2000s: I came across a compelling claim that, during the lead-up to the '''2004 U.S. Presidential Election''', most traditional polling data had '''John Kerry''' leading and predicted to win. However, an '''online gambling site based in Ireland''' had '''George W. Bush''' as the favored candidate. Ultimately, Bush did go on to '''win re-election''', suggesting that the gambling market had outperformed the polls in predictive accuracy.

	== Interpretation ==		== Interpretation ==
	~~This anecdote points~~ to a broader idea:		These examples point to a broader idea:
	''Markets where people wager real money may offer better predictive insights than traditional opinion polls.'' The reasoning is that people tend to place bets based on what they genuinely believe will ~~happen, not just~~ what they hope for. This ~~potentially~~ makes '''prediction markets''' more accurate than ~~self-reported public~~ opinion surveys, which can be ~~influenced~~ by bias, limited ~~sampling~~, or ~~momentary sentiment~~.		''Markets where people wager real money may offer better predictive insights than traditional opinion polls.'' The reasoning is that people tend to place bets based on what they genuinely believe will happen—not merely what they hope for. This often makes '''prediction markets''' more accurate than opinion surveys, which can be distorted by bias, limited sample sizes, or emotional responses.


	== Notes ==		== Notes ==
	~~This observation aligns with broader interest~~ in ~~using '''real-money markets'''~~ as ~~tools~~ for gauging ~~public sentiment and forecasting outcomes, especially~~ in ~~complex~~ domains like politics, where ~~motivations~~ and ~~biases can distort traditional data collection methods~~.		The reemergence of election betting discourse via platforms like BetMGM shows that the idea remains relevant. As prediction markets grow in popularity and legitimacy, they continue to serve as a valuable tool for gauging collective expectations—especially in domains like politics, where public sentiment can be volatile and difficult to measure.


	== Interesting ~~reel~~ about BetMGM ==		== Interesting Reel about BetMGM ==
			Interesting reel from [https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi Peter Salemi] on results from ''The Roar \| BetMGM'' about 45th Canadian Federal Election Odds, Favourites, & Predictions.
	Interesting reel from [https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi Peter Salemi] on results from "The Roar \| BetMGM" about 45th Canadian Federal Election Odds, Favourites, & Predictions.

	<blockquote>		<blockquote>
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	<embedvideo service="facebook" dimensions="400x600">https://www.facebook.com/659481510/videos/1164301544892666/</embedvideo>		<embedvideo service="facebook" dimensions="400x600">https://www.facebook.com/659481510/videos/1164301544892666/</embedvideo>

			== See also ==
	==See also==		* [https://sports.betmgm.ca/en/blog/canadian-federal-election-odds/canadian-federal-election-betting-odds-predictions-bm-20/ BetMGM: Canadian Federal Election Betting Odds & Predictions]
	* https://sports.betmgm.ca/en/blog/canadian-federal-election-odds/canadian-federal-election-betting-odds-predictions-bm-20/		* [https://www.facebook.com/reel/1164301544892666 Facebook Reel: 45th Canadian Federal Election Odds]
	* https://www.facebook.com/reel/1164301544892666



	[[Category:2025 Articles]]		[[Category:2025 Articles]]
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	[[Category:Politics]]		[[Category:Politics]]
	[[Category:Crowd Knowledge]]		[[Category:Crowd Knowledge]]
			[[Category:Prediction Markets]]

Nik at 2025-03-22T21:39:54

2025-03-22T21:39:54Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 2025-03-22T21:39:54
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	== Interesting reel ==		== Interesting reel about BetMGM ==

	Interesting reel from [https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi Peter Salemi] on results from "The Roar \| BetMGM" about 45th Canadian Federal Election Odds, Favourites, & Predictions.		Interesting reel from [https://www.facebook.com/RealPeterSalemi Peter Salemi] on results from "The Roar \| BetMGM" about 45th Canadian Federal Election Odds, Favourites, & Predictions.